Market News
By RSIR Staff
With 2025 in the rearview mirror and a fresh year awaiting us, this certainly feels like a moment of opportunity. Whether you’re looking to finally strengthen your investment portfolio, make your first home purchase, or strategically sell an existing property, there’s no better burst of inspiration to tackle your goals than entering a new year. Before we leave 2025 behind, it’s crucial to look back and understand the market, with a full year offering us context into complex and shifting market trends and economic headwinds.
The best way to begin your real estate journey is to educate yourself on the market data. In the latest episode of Market Perspectives, Principal of Gardner Economics Matthew Gardner sat down with Realogics Sotheby’s International Realty (RSIR) President and CEO Dean Jones to break down the most important market moves from the previous year and what buyers and sellers can expect in 2026. Watch the full video below and continue reading for the top highlights from this discussion between two industry experts.
WATCH VIDEO HERE
Market Activity Levels Were Up
As Gardner predicted during the 2025 Futurecast Forum, the market saw a boost in activity during the year, with the number of home sales up compared to 2024. Although the boost in inventory in 2025 was a welcome reprieve for buyers searching for a home, Gardner noted that, “It’s still the lowest level of inventory we’ve seen between 1990 and 2019.”
Washington state’s housing legislation House Bill 1110 has affected new construction, but not to the extent that was originally expected. Given building costs—taking into account land and housing costs—the bill has opened up opportunities for more middle housing, but there are still obstacles for developers and investors looking to take advantage of the bill.
Wealth Migration
Given factors like climate change and job opportunities, the Pacific Northwest has seen an influx of new residents and new homeowners. However, housing affordability remains an issue for residents looking to enter the real estate market. As Gardner said, “You still have to have that starting point. If you don’t have those first-time buyers, then you don’t have move-up buyers—it’s a chain of events that has to happen.”
Mortgage Rates
Gardner advised buyers that waiting for dramatically lower mortgage rates could mean waiting indefinitely. Mortgage rates hovered around 6.25%, which was lower than the highs witnessed in 2023, but far from the rate that many potential homebuyers were hoping to see.
“In a summary to those would-be buyers that have been waiting for the marker to say go ahead and buy, there are more reasons to lean in than there would be to pull back, because we’re not going to get some dramatic rate cut,” said Dean Jones, President and CEO of RSIR. “There is more likelihood that home prices will rise.”
Job Market and Economy
Although Gardner admitted that a recession in 2026 is possible, he does not believe it is likely. Unemployment is up, and Gardner believes that the Fed will focus more on the labor market than on inflation, potentially leading to further rate cuts during the year. Although the Fed does not set mortgage rates, its decisions do typically affect mortgage rates, meaning that, hopefully, buyers and sellers can expect some downward movement on mortgage interest rates.
Diving into the effects of artificial intelligence on the job market, particularly in the greater Seattle area, Gardner acknowledged the duality of AI. “Will jobs get lost? Yes, I think certainly some secondary industries will get hit hard, but I think a lot won’t,” Gardner said. “At the same time, I see a spawning of new industries that we don’t even know yet. We don’t know what they’re going to be.”
For more market updates, visit futurecastforum.com.